I've been talking to people. Here's what I'm hearing about how they are handling the recession.
Fear, desperation and hunkering down are typical descriptions. No confidence about the future. I've yet to talk to a person who either runs a business or owns one that believes the government's stimulus efforts will do much good.
Heard about a guy who bought rental property as a retirement investment. He's had to take a second job to pay the mortgage because his tenants have lost their jobs.
Heard a guy tell another about a long career with a company that started early in his life. He retired well and young, and now is having to think about going back to work because his investments are in such bad shape.
Read in a Tom Peters' post the other day a quote from Peggy Noonan. She first speaks about spread of pessimism.
This isn't like the stock market crash of 1987 or the collapse of the dot-com bubble in 2001. People are not feeling passing anger or disappointment, they're feeling truly frightened.
The reasons:
This isn't stock market heebie-jeebies, it's systemic collapse.
It's not just here, it's global.
It's not only economic, but political. It wasn't only mortgage companies that acted up and acted out, so did our government, all the governments of the West, spending what they didn't have, for a decade at least.
And at the center of the drama is your houseāits worth, or its ability to see you through retirement, or your ability to hold onto it. An extra added angst bonus: Those thinking now about retirement are just old enough to remember America before the abundance, before everyone was rich, rich being defined as plenty to eat, a stable place to live, and some left over for fun and pleasure. For them, the crash has released old memories. And it's spooking people.
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Perhaps the biggest factor behind the new pessimism is the knowledge that the crisis is not only economic but political, that we'll have to change both cultures, economic and political, to turn the mess around. That's a tall order, and won't happen quickly. One thing for sure: Our political leaders for at least a decade, really more, have by and large been men and women who had fortunate lives, who always seemed to expect nice things to happen and happiness to occur. And so they could overspend, overcommit and overextend the military, and it would all turn out fine. They claimed to be quintessentially optimistic, but it was a cheap optimism, based more on sunny personal experience than any particular faith, and void of an understanding of how dark and gritty life can be, and has been for most of human history.
The crisis isn't just global, but local. It isn't just about the ability of large institutions, business and governmental ones, to foster trust and confidence. She is right this isn't a simple burp along the path towards prosperity. We are experiencing the first great systemic failure or collapse (as Kevin Kelly calls it) of the connected era.
The Noonan quote that Peters selected.
I end with a hunch that is not an unhappy one. Dynamism has been leached from our system for now, but not from the human brain or heart. Just as our political regeneration will happen locally, in counties and states that learn how to control themselves and demonstrate how to govern effectively in a time of limits, so will our economic regeneration. That will begin in someone's garage, somebody's kitchen, as it did in the case of Messrs. Jobs and Wozniak. The comeback will be from the ground up and will start with innovation. No one trusts big anymore. In the future everything will be local. That's where the magic will be. And no amount of pessimism will stop it once it starts.
My experience of working with people and their organizations they make the transitions of organizational change has shown me that attitude is an important factor in dealing with a crisis. Fear and desperation need to be replace with trust and confidence. Hunkering down isn't survival. It is burial. The future is local and it is collaborative.
The challenge we each face together is the recreation of a local business environment that supports innovation, entrepreneurship and collaboration. It doesn't start in Washington, or on Wall Street or at your state capital. It starts right where you are.
I end, as Noonan ended her column, believing that opportunities abound right now. They are not easy or simple, but they are there for people and business who are willing to put aside territorial privilege, act collaboratively and practice innovation and entrepreneurialism in their businesses and community organizations.
There is great strength in every community waiting to be released. It is up to us. Let's begin the conversation that makes this happen.
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